Aegis Equities Research

Energy

Paladin Energy (PDN) Expansion plans approved but on a smaller size 30/06/2009 20:31
PDN is moving ahead with Stage 3 expansion of its Langer Heinrich uranium mine but at a slightly smaller size... + more PDN is moving ahead with Stage 3 expansion of its Langer Heinrich uranium mine but at a slightly smaller size due to water supply restrictions. Production capacity will be increased to 5.2Mlb per annum U3O8 at a capital cost of US$71M and a target completion date of September 2010. This compares to the original plans of 6Mlb per annum requiring US$174M in capex. We have maintained our REDUCE recommendation on both short- and long-term time horizons. - less

Roc Oil (ROC) Opportunistic equity raising; we recommend shareholders REDUCE holding 29/06/2009 17:05
ROC has successfully completed an institutional share placement, raising ~A$68.8M through a fully underwritten placement of around 88M new ordinary... + more ROC has successfully completed an institutional share placement, raising ~A$68.8M through a fully underwritten placement of around 88M new ordinary shares at an issue price of A$0.78/share, determined following a bookbuild. ROC has also announced a Share Purchase Plan (SPP), which is available to eligible ROC shareholders. The raised funds have significantly reduced our forecast debt levels; as a result, our DCF valuation has risen. Our 12-month price target now stands at $0.70/share. REDUCE. - less

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Materials

Paper & Forest Products Paper and Forestry Products – FY09 Sector Preview 03/07/2009 11:08
This report offers a preview of the 1H09 results for Amcor (AMC) and PaperlinX (PPX) in the Paper and Packaging... + more This report offers a preview of the 1H09 results for Amcor (AMC) and PaperlinX (PPX) in the Paper and Packaging sector, and Gunns (GNS) in the Forestry sector. An overview of the main issues facing these companies is included. - less

Gunns Limited (GNS) Gunns MISfires on plantation earnings 01/07/2009 16:24
GNS announced that it has achieved FY09 MIS sales of $45.5M across its suite of walnut and plantation forestry investment... + more GNS announced that it has achieved FY09 MIS sales of $45.5M across its suite of walnut and plantation forestry investment projects. This is well down on the $122M achieved in FY08. Whilst we had forecast a steep decline in FY09 sales, the result has underperformed even our bearish expectations. With terms yet to be finalised regarding the Bell Bay Pulp Mill development and clear risks to short-term earnings, we maintain our 12-month REDUCE and long-term SELL recommendations on the stock. - less

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Industrials

Corporate Express (CXP) Stronger than expected US sales prompt upgrade to sales forecasts 02/07/2009 16:41
Given the stronger than expected like-for-like sale figures reported by Staples (USA), we have revised our forecasts for Australian like-for-like... + more Given the stronger than expected like-for-like sale figures reported by Staples (USA), we have revised our forecasts for Australian like-for-like sales. We believe our previous forecasts for sales declines were too aggressive and are now forecasting sales to decline by 6% in FY10 and be flat for FY11. We have left our forecasts for margins unchanged. Following these changes, our price target is $3.82, and we retain our NEUTRAL recommendation on both a 12-month and a long-term outlook. - less

Qantas Airways (QAN) May traffic data and aircraft deferral 30/06/2009 18:16
QAN has released May traffic statistics. We also update our model following QAN's announcement that it has delayed and cancelled... + more QAN has released May traffic statistics. We also update our model following QAN's announcement that it has delayed and cancelled a number of aircraft orders. We have made some minor adjustments to our cashflow forecasts to reflect the capital expenditure timing. Our revenue and EBITDA forecasts are largely unchanged. The timing of cashflow and the cancellation of aircraft orders lift our 12-month price target from $1.98 to $2.18. We retain our NEUTRAL recommendations. - less

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Consumer Discretionary

Casinos & Gaming FY09 Result: Gaming Sector Preview 02/07/2009 11:16
With the FY09 reporting season approaching, we offer an overview of the challenges and opportunities facing the Gaming Sector as... + more With the FY09 reporting season approaching, we offer an overview of the challenges and opportunities facing the Gaming Sector as well as an insight into our thinking with regard to the likely performance of the key stocks in the sector. The Aegis gaming sector universe of coverage consists of ALL, CWN, TAH and TTS. - less

David Jones (DJS) Delivering growth through the cycle 30/06/2009 16:37
DJS has upgraded its FY09 NPAT guidance from a range of 0%-5% to 8%-12% growth. This upgrade has been the... + more DJS has upgraded its FY09 NPAT guidance from a range of 0%-5% to 8%-12% growth. This upgrade has been the result of much improved sales conditions over May and June, both of which delivered positive like-for-like sales growth over the pcp. We maintain our Neutral 12-month view and our long-term ADD recommendation and expect greater detail regarding the sales performance to be provided at the 4Q09 sales update in August. - less

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Consumer Staple

Elders Limited (ELD) Short-term maturities extended; equity raising seems imminent 30/06/2009 14:40
ELD has formalised its previously announced in-principle agreement with lenders to extend its short-dated facilities and change the timing of... + more ELD has formalised its previously announced in-principle agreement with lenders to extend its short-dated facilities and change the timing of certain covenant tests until 30 September 2009. Given our view that an equity raising is imminent, we see no reason to be overweight the stock until such time as a raising has been finalised and a better gauge of ELD’s financial position can be obtained. REDUCE. - less

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Australian Equity Strategy

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