Aegis Equities Research

Energy

Origin Energy (ORG) Forecast review: No change to view 06/01/2009 16:33
We have reduced our oil price assumptions and AUD/USD exchange-rate forecasts for the short to medium term and we have... + more We have reduced our oil price assumptions and AUD/USD exchange-rate forecasts for the short to medium term and we have also reviewed our LNG pricing methodology. The reduction in oil price forecasts has resulted in a downgrade of our FY09 and FY10 earnings forecasts by 13% and 12%, respectively, and our target price has fallen slightly to $17.30. At current levels we retain our short- and long-term HOLD recommendations. - less

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Materials

Gunns Limited (GNS) Pulp mill almost approved 05/01/2009 17:08
The Federal Government has refused to approve GNS's planned Bell Bay pulp mill. Three of the 12 modules of the... + more The Federal Government has refused to approve GNS's planned Bell Bay pulp mill. Three of the 12 modules of the environment impact study have been rejected and now need to be resubmitted by 3 March 2011. This is another stumbling step forward for the Bell Bay pulp mill. The next major issue is finance. There appears little positive progress. GNS needs the pulp mill to drive future profit growth and until such time as finance is probable, we maintain a negative view on GNS. - less

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Industrials

Crane Group (CRG) Review of forecasts leads to more conservative view 05/01/2009 15:38
The macroeconomic picture has worsened sharply since our last note in October. We have cut short-term revenue forecasts, reflecting worsening... + more The macroeconomic picture has worsened sharply since our last note in October. We have cut short-term revenue forecasts, reflecting worsening cyclical conditions and the looming risk of an economic “hard landing” for Australia. In the long-term, we expect even the fastest-growing segments will eventually run into industry maturity. Our forecast FY09 and FY10 EPS fall by 3.9% and 16.0%, respectively. Our price target falls to $8.23. We retain our negative investment opinion at present levels. - less

Leighton Holdings (LEI) Financial crisis impacts FY09 growth outlook... we downgrade to HOLD 06/01/2009 17:46
LEI's 1H09 results will be impacted by a total asset write-downs of ~$170M after tax. LEI expects an FY09 operating... + more LEI's 1H09 results will be impacted by a total asset write-downs of ~$170M after tax. LEI expects an FY09 operating profit of ~$650M, up 8% on FY08. LEI expects to maintain both its FY09 DPS at the same level as FY08. We have reduced our growth forecasts in the Middle East to reflect the broadening slowdown in the region. Our 12-month price target falls to $26.46. Given the increasing uncertainty in the growth outlook in a number of LEI's markets we recommend caution. We downgrade to HOLD. - less

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Consumer Discretionary

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Consumer Staple

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